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Welcome to One Dimensional Policy and Practice

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 08:57:52 GMT

A Local Planning Authority (LPA) believes that Planet Earth is a flat disc rather than a sphere.

We have recently read a LPA S.78 planning appeal statement of case that claims that the housing needs assessments produced by the LPA “ are a robust examination of housing need ”. The LPA considers that its HNA’s are exemplary and should be replicated. Only their methodology would be accepted as robust evidence of need.

Following our assessment of the example of its robust housing need assessment supplied by the LPA that accompanied the statement of case (therefore in the public domain), we can confidently say that the HNA is neither robust nor does it meet the LPA’s own policy for evidencing need for a rural exception site! How inconvenient for the LPA.

There are 4 fundamental issues with the LPA’s preferred methodology;

1) The first fundamental issue is that the HNA makes no reference to supply. An assessment of supply is necessary. Logically, the snapshot of households in affordable need is not the same as the number of additional homes that are needed. The LPA fails to take into account that supply from vacancies is likely to occur to mitigate the measure of need. Have any planning consents been granted that amount to committed development that will help to address the outstanding need?

2) The second fundamental issue is that the LPA relies on a headcount of households i.e. at the point the survey was undertaken X households were in housing need. Somehow the number X is interpreted as the level of need ignoring the fact that only a small proportion of households actually completed the survey, and that housing need is in fact a flow of households measured over time. The flow over time provides a further dimension to the assessment (turning the circle into a sphere).

3) The third fundamental issue is that the LPA survey questionnaire even fails to ask if the household in need is seeking to remain living in the parish or is planning to leave it! Therefore evidence is questionable to support the council’s policy requirement to demonstrate that need for local housing exists.

4) The fourth fundamental issue is that house prices and rents are not fully analysed or described in the report. The report is ambiguous about prices and there is no clarity about how the test of affordability is applied. This is crucial to the credibility of the report.

The problem is that 80% to 90% of HNAs in circulation on England are produced by LPAs or rural enablers and none of them are robust as they are all rely on a similar methodology.

So why the disc to sphere analogy? Because measuring the flow of need over time adds an extra dimension which most thinking people recognise as true!

Our full critique of the LPA one dimensional HNA can be found at the following link. It makes fascinating reading. https://www.cnbhousing.co.uk/independent-expert-witness-services

For follow up reading we recommend the various publications of philosopher and astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson who applies deep thought to belief systems and subjectivity.

The Power of Neighbourhood Planning

Wed, 13 Apr 2022 10:30:13 GMT

Last year, a parish council client commissioned us to undertake a housing need survey (HNS). A HNS was required because the client felt that recent development proposals were not in line with the perception of local need.

We had an excellent public response to the survey and produced relevant data. Once our report was written, we supported the client to ensure that there was a full understanding of the data and our findings. The findings showed that the needs of a number of household groups resident in the parish were not being met and that this was likely to adversely impact on the community.

We have recently been informed that a development proposal has come forward that exactly meets local need as evidenced by the HNS. This can now go through the planning process with the support of objective local evidence.

Of course, if the development proposal didn’t meet local need, the parish council now have the evidence to resist the development.

Please get in touch to have an informal discussion about how we can support neighbourhood planning processes and outcomes.

Stimulating self-build and custom housebuilding and the Bacon Review

Fri, 03 Dec 2021 13:54:19 GMT

A report that has piqued our interest is the Richard Bacon’s review of scaling up self and custom build housing (the ‘Bacon Review’).

The Bacon review, authored by MP Richard Bacon, is an independent review into scaling up self-build and custom housebuilding, as a contribution to resolving our housing crisis. This report was commissioned by the Prime Minister, and written and covers every aspect of self-build and custom housebuilding, from the advantages and disadvantages, to the process; issues one might find along the way; and how we could approach it better as a country.

We have taken a great interest in self-build and custom housebuilding over the years and in the course of our work we have reviewed many local authority registers, as well as had discussions with land agents, local authorities, house builders and registered providers on the subject.

We have formed the view that the role self-build and custom housebuilding is undervalued by the general public and some local authorities. This is because it is self-evident that historic self-build and custom housebuilding has been the key factor in shaping some of our most distinctive and characterful towns and villages especially in rural areas which is of particular interest to our consultancy.

So here are a few observations stimulated by selected findings of the review.

Self-build and custom housebuilding should be encouraged to be more diverse and mainstream.

The Bacon Review includes an inspirational story to support this. ‘In the 1990s, twelve unemployed Afro-Caribbean men, some of which were ex-offenders, built their own houses in Chapeltown in Leeds, using construction skills they learned at a training centre which was set up in the wake of the 1980s riots, chiefly because of the insistence and sheer determination of one young man, Claude Hendrikson, that he would simply not tolerate having streets where half the houses were derelict while he had friends and neighbours sleeping three to a room’. This is just one inspiring story about individuals coming together to create a better housing solution for themselves and improving their quality of life.

Self-build and custom housebuilding does not meet housing need! (?)

The review cites a view given by a consultee stating that in that person’s opinion, self-build and custom housebuilding does not meet housing need. We would challenge this. Firstly, using the above story, it could directly address housing need if it were enabled. In our view many equate housing need with affordable housing need. Whilst models exist for people to participate in affordable self-build and custom housebuilding, it should be recognised that households in any tenure might experience housing need. Many households needing to upsize are unable to afford to do so, particularly if the available supply is newbuild – offered at premium prices. Secondly households seeking more suitable housing later in life might be well placed to embark on and benefit self-build and custom housebuilding projects as the volume housebuilders, in our experience, are doing very little to address this segment of the market.

There needs to be a wider recognition that in a time of acute housing shortage there are indirect benefits of newbuild housing from any source. New build supply is usually the welcome endpoint in a conveyancing chain and chains can be very lengthy. Within the chain there will always be instances of needs being met because of the vacancies created, trickling supply down to the other endpoint a purchaser or renter seeking housing for the first time, often with modest income relative to the top end of the chain!

Some local authorities are not engaged

Based upon our experience of reviewing registers we find that a high proportion of local authorities are just going through the motions. We very much welcome the content of the Bacon Review that addresses this beyond the issue of registers through to the planning system.

Nevertheless, we believe that self-build and custom housebuilding is thriving. Our work necessitates analysis of local authority planning application lists. We are struck by the high proportion of applications for single dwellings whether newbuild or conversions. Unfortunately, such applications are not conclusively for self-build and custom housebuilding. It would be great if planning application forms captured this information

The local community is well placed to enable projects.

Community led housing groups where they exist are delivering housing in their local areas that they know is needed, on land they have chosen to develop. This often means that the development is supported by the larger community.

There are a large range of tools available for prospective community led housing groups, with lots of information available online. CNB Housing Insights has worked with a number of community-led housing groups, and would be pleased to support their initiatives by way of a housing research, which would seek to provide the necessary evidence to accompany their planning applications.

The Generation Game

Tue, 16 Nov 2021 10:29:03 GMT

Generation cohorts and housing policy

Thanks to the BBC for broadcasting the 8th November edition of Start the Week, presented by Andrew Marr. The show talked about how the generations differ in several ways including employment, economics and housing. One of the excellent contributors was Bobby Duffy, Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, a generational analyst who’s most recent book explores many aspects of how the generations differ and the implications of this.

I am a Baby Boomer and have worked in housing for over 40-years. I got a mortgage and became a homeowner in my early 20s, had a secure job with an occupational pension. So the show grabbed my interest. From the show I learned about the other generations and quickly realised that with children and grandchildren and maybe more grandchildren in future I could relate to other generations. It’s worth defining the generations:

Generation Z is the first generation that is familiar with the internet from a young age.

Professor Duffy explores a framework of influences or impacts on the generations using an ocean analogy:

Period effects likened to waves, small or large, large being e.g. war, a financial crisis, a pandemic;
Cohorts, likened to tides, e.g. distinct longer term characteristics of each generation
Life cycle, likened to currents e.g. how we change as we age.

Of particular interest to me is how economic factors impact on the generations particularly housing. His research indicates that 80% of Baby Boomers became homeowners, Generation X was expected to match this but only 60% are achieving it. Only 40% of Millennials are expected to achieve home ownership.

He also considers how full adulthood has been delayed with young adults living with parents on average for 10 years longer than earlier generations. He considers that this is delayed due to economic ‘waves’ rather than a lack of ambition or aspiration. He describes it as a rational response to economic circumstances.

A few thoughts occur to me on the back of this analysis that have implications for housing markets and housing policy:

How will the market for mass market 4-bedroom detached housing in particular play out as the baby boomers exit them (one way or another!) and fewer members of future generations cannot afford them – especially if inheritances are not as driven by housing wealth as they are now?
Is the private rented sector model fit for purpose as it takes an increasing market share?
How will investment in the maintenance and renewal of the housing stock, especially in the private rented sector be funded? Surely this is critical to the ambition to be carbon neutral?
Can affordable home ownership bridge the gap?

I am wondering if generational analysis is potentially a more useful tool for housing analysts than the market segmentation analysis that is available.

You can listen to the 8th November edition of the Andrew Marr show on BBC sounds until November 2022. Bobby Duffy’s book Generations: Does When You’re Born Shape Who You Are? was published in September 2021.

Truly Affordable Home Ownership

Fri, 29 Jan 2021 11:22:16 GMT

Assessing the need for affordable housing

Local planning authorities will soon be faced with assessing NPPF compliant planning applications that involve the Government's new 'First Homes' scheme as well as other Affordable Home Ownership (AHO) products.

There is generally little evidence of such need within existing housing registers or waiting lists. Also, some councils are making assumptions about the level of need using older, out of date evidence bases that precede the current NPPF.

Our view, based upon our recent local household surveys, is that demand for First Homes and the 2021 Help to Buy scheme will be strong thanks largely due to the popularity of the outgoing Help to Buy scheme. But how can the demand be quantified? Will the housing provided be truly affordable to those that aspire to it? What value is a 30% discount if the discounted price is not generally affordable to local households?

CNB Housing Insights can help answer these questions.

2020 in review: the impact of a pandemic on the housing market

Fri, 18 Dec 2020 10:52:03 GMT

Pandemic Pandemonium

Nearing the end of a tumultuous year, CNB Housing Insights are taking stock of the chaos of 2020 and the challenges it has presented for the housing world.

This is the year that everything changed. A pandemic swept across the whole globe, reshaping our daily lives and causing a heart-breaking amount of loss in it’s wake.

CNB Housing Insights is particularly interested in the impact the pandemic has had on the housing market.

The following line chart reveals the numbers of residential sales over the value of £40,000 in the last four years [1] . The purple line tells a fascinating story, pinpointing the exact moment England came to a standstill. In April, 32,400 sales took place. As the country started coming out of hibernation (AKA Lockdown 1.0), October saw an increase of sales by 213%. The figures for house sales in August-October are provisional so far, but October saw sales of c.101,000. This figure hasn’t been topped since the mad rush to beat the SDLT rule change back in April 2016 that effected individuals wanting to purchase second homes [2] .

Being one of those individuals that purchased a home in October 2020 that was delayed by COVID-19, Nicola has lived through the knock-on impact to house-builders, mortgage brokers…basically everyone in the chain, having originally planned to move home in the summer. October resulted in a large amount of pent-up demand for housing being released after people had put their plans on hold. It remains to be seen if Lockdown 2.0 changed the course of the housing sales for the last two months of the year.

Pent-up demand for housing, coupled with the lucky ones who didn’t lose their jobs over the summer has created a boom, with housing prices on an upward trend. Although this feels risky. In a recent ONS survey, 1 in 7 companies said they have ‘ little or no confidence in surviving the following 12 weeks ’, with accommodation and food services appearing worst affected. 34% of businesses in that industry reported their lack of confidence in survival [3] . In the last few weeks alone, we’ve seen Debenhams and Arcadia Group collapsing, although there are many more.

Mind the gap(s)!

Nicola and Chris, the partners of CNB Housing Insights, believe the role of affordable housing will be more crucial than ever in the coming years, as households take stock of how the pandemic has affected them and their options. The country faces challenges too as it strives to repair the economy and support the public’s own financial security.

Nicola, CNB Housing Insights partner says ‘ I think that what we have seen in 2020 will massively shape the future of housing in the UK. What we are likely to see moving into the New Year, is two very different things. A portion of the population have been able to hunker down and work remotely, saved money on not eating out and not going on holidays, and even spent time on home improvements. These people are likely to be finding themselves able to move up the housing ladder.

Sadly, the flip-side of those are hospitality workers, retail workers etc., who have seen 2020 result in large scale job losses across their sectors. These people may find themselves in housing they can no longer afford to live in and barely afford to move out of. We already see substantial need for affordable housing, but I see this as something that is only going to increase for the time being. We need to thoughtfully and carefully build housing to address the needs of both of these groups to ensure the market remains fluid and protect those who have been affected the most by Covid-19.’

Chris, CNB Housing Insights says ‘building on the above, in 2021 the new Help to Buy and First Homes scheme will launch. Both will be aimed at first time buyers. This leaves a gap for those homeowners that need to upsize compounding the problems faced by lower income households some of whom will be key workers. We would suggest that few would consider shared ownership in the light of the bad press it has received recently over the cladding fire safety scandal.’

Have yourself a merry little Christmas!

CNB Housing Insights are looking forward to a busy 2021, but in the meantime enjoy your mulled wine and mince pies, have a wonderful (socially-distanced) Christmas, and a very Happy New Year.

[1] Gov UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above

[2] https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/stamp-duty-changes-april-1-2016-everything-you-need-to-know-a100366.html

[3] https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/coronavirusandtheeconomicimpactsontheuk/19november2020#main-points

Delivering First Homes - Exception and Rural Exception Sites

Fri, 27 Nov 2020 15:35:04 GMT

Consultation on changes to planning policy

The Government published its response to the consultation on the new First Homes scheme. During the consultation, the Government proposed the following (our emphasis in bold):

‘We intend to introduce a First Homes exception sites policy, to replace the existing entry-level exception sites policy. Exception sites are small sites brought forward outside the local plan to deliver affordable housing. Under the amended policy, we will specify that the affordable homes delivered should be First Homes for local, first-time buyers . There will be the flexibility in the policy to allow a small proportion of other affordable homes to be delivered on these sites where there is significant identified local need’.

The following consultation question was asked:

‘Do you agree that the First Homes exception sites policy should not apply in designated rural areas?’

The Government’s response is as follows:

‘We recognise that Rural Exception Sites are important for the delivery of affordable homes in rural areas and will consult on further guidance to provide clarity on policy, with the aim of ensuring that they are used to their full potential.’

We at CNB Housing Insights believe that it is vital that First Homes can be established within rural exceptions sites. Through our housing needs surveys, many of which are commissioned to identify local need for rural exception sites, we have observed strong demand from newly forming households for First Homes. If not provided, these young people, would have to leave the local area to find affordable home ownership causing a loss to the community.

It’s our view that a mixed and balanced community is key to attracting people in the neighbourhood to benefit the community, which includes key workers, younger families and newly forming households, something that First Homes can help to maintain.

Will First Homes achieve what shared ownership couldn't?

Mon, 24 Aug 2020 08:52:32 GMT

What is affordable housing?

Current National Planning Policy Framework defines affordable housing as ‘ housing for sale or rent, for those whose needs are not met by the market (including housing that provides a subsidised route to home ownership and/or is for essential local workers) ’ .

Shared Ownership

This definition incorporates affordable home ownership products, in addition to shared ownership. Of all the products designed to help individuals get a foot on the property ladder, shared ownership never really caught on.

Having helped to deliver many household survey-based housing needs surveys at parish and Local Authority level over the years, we have always been struck by low levels of interest in shared ownership expressed by respondents. The reasons for this may be cultural; sharing the ownership of a home may not appeal to some. Yet, the positives of shared ownership are numerous, and many find it a very affordable and accessible route into home ownership, enabling low-income households to access higher-quality housing at an affordable price. Unlike Help to Buy, it’s not just for new households either.

First Homes Scheme

We’ll talk more about the proposed First Homes scheme in a later blog. The government scheme coming into force later in the year will offer discounts of ‘ at least 30%’ for local people, key workers and new households but what level of demand is anticipated for this scheme once it is implemented? Will this be a more successful scheme?

We think so. Recent household surveys we have undertaken are showing a higher proportion of households that are actively considering the option, especially in high priced areas where young households are forced to move out of area to find housing that is affordable to them. Everyone loves a discount, and that might be what makes the scheme more popular.

A key selling point of First Homes is that it prioritises key workers, which is justifiable to many given the pay scales of certain public workers versus their recent role in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Although this is certainly not new – we are well versed in consistently demonstrating the unaffordability of local housing to key workers and single households resulting in many households struggling to afford home ownership.

Whatever the product – shared ownership, help to buy, First Homes; we have great hopes at CNB Housing Insights that quality housing will be made affordable and accessible to those who need it most as the country begins to move forward.

Contact Chris today on 07809625636 to get a quote for a Housing Needs Survey for your parish or local authority to ensure you are prepared for the new government scheme.

Planning for the future - Neighbourhood Planning

Fri, 14 Aug 2020 08:04:43 GMT

One of the recent announcements made by the government was a pledge to provide much needed increased funding to neighbourhood planning groups in urban and deprived areas. With the pot increasing from £10,000 to £18,000, starting this week to help improve deprived areas, neighbourhood planning groups will be keen to put this money to good use on behalf of their local communities.

As part of this announcement, the government also stated that these groups will be provided with access to technical expertise free of charge, which includes advice on housing needs assessments presumably via Locality and its partners.

What about CNB Housing Insights?

“The Locality Toolkit is a starting point for neighbourhood planners to get a broad brush understanding of local housing issues, but you very rapidly realise that the toolkit doesn’t give you the real insights into what the local housing problems are, who it affects and the scale and type of housing that is required. This finer information is the only real foundation for neighbourhood plan policies to address the issues and ensure that appropriate housing is provided on a scale that is actually needed.”

Chris, Partner of CNB Housing Insights

Locality offers basic facts and a one size fits all methodology for assessing local housing needs. If you really want to understand where the gaps and surpluses in your housing stock are in order to meet the needs of local residents, you need a robust survey and expert analysis. The additional government funding enables CNB Housing Insights to provide this detail to assist the communities that need it the most, within the reach of neighbourhood planning budgets.

What additional value does this expertise bring? In all of our neighbourhood planning related evidence bases we have described what is driving the need for additional housing locally and quantified any gaps in local housing supply that might exist. This is crucial if younger and older people are to be retained in their communities for both their benefit and the wider sustainability of local communities. Neighbourhood planning inspectors have never doubted the robustness and relevance of our work.

CNB Housing Insights can provide a detailed, bespoke Housing Needs Survey. Additionally, we would welcome the opportunity to widen the scope of the evidence base to support local policies on affordable home ownership, design standards, space standards and innovations such as co-housing.

Pick up the phone to Chris on 07809 625636 for an informal chat about how CNB Housing Insights can support your community.

Build, build, build... but build what?

Mon, 03 Aug 2020 09:39:42 GMT

There is currently a period of re-evaluation and adjustment after lockdown for the entire country, but particularly for the housing and labour markets. Everything has been changing on a day to day basis; furlough schemes, mortgage rates, stamp duty holidays, planning policy reforms…the list goes on.

But don’t panic. The truth is, we still need to do what we’ve always been doing; understand housing needs based on what we know about population, employment, and prosperity. It’s been a weird world over the last few months but CNB Housing Insights is excited to help you plan through these tumultuous times.

How will all of this uncertainty play out for home-owners? Whilst they enjoy cheap loans, they also face uncertainty about prices if market volumes shrink and prices fall.

And renters? Current and prospective tenants of private landlords face the risk of rents rising as a consequence of higher levels of demand, at least in the short term.

Of course, home-owners and renters alike will be affected by unemployment. Evidence already suggests the monumental impact of Covid-19 affecting job security across the board, despite the government’s best efforts with their furlough scheme.

An unfortunate result of all of this is likely to be an increase in demand for social housing. Our concern here is that investment in much needed additional affordable supply may well be cut as the Government faces the mountain of debt incurred to avoid an economic catastrophe.

Our Prime Minister has called out the need for housing; we are here to help decipher how authorities, registered providers, house builders and investors can direct scare resources to have the maximum impact on housing needs.